An earthquake along the San Andreas fault impacting both northern and southern California simultaneously was once considered impossible, however new data from CoreLogic shows that it is now considered not only possible, but could increase the homes damaged by 126%.
CoreLogic’s analysis is based on a revised earthquake risk science from the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version three. This forecast shows that a single large earthquake could rupture in north and south California simultaneously. Previously, San Andreas fault has been viewed as two independent segments.
An earthquake with a magnitude of 8.3 along the fault could now damage 3.5 million homes, up from the previous estimate of 1.6 million homes. The estimated reconstruction cost value increased 79% from $161 billion to $289 billion.
Here are three scenarios that CoreLogic gives, and the increased damage they could cause.
Scenario 1:
Scenario 2:
Scenario 3:
This increased risk could mean a decrease in California home prices. Home sales in counties with low natural hazard risk increased during the first half of 2016 at double the rate as those with high natural hazard risk, according to ATTOM Data Solutions, a source for comprehensive housing data and the new parent company of RealtyTrac.
