The one-month uptick in consumer price inflation and the Federal Reserve’s winding down of its bond buying will not threaten consumer default rates and overall economic activity, as the latest national default rate continues to trend downward.
The national default rate posted the lowest post-recession rate of 1.11% in April, according to the S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices.
This is the lowest default rate since June 2006.
The first mortgage default rate dropped for the seventh consecutive month to 1.01% in April: the lowest level since July 2006.
However, both the bankcards and second mortgages witnessed their default rates increase; the bankcard rate was 2.84% and the second mortgage posted 0.63% in April 2014.
“The prospect for further gains in economic activity and consumer confidence is good as shown by the continuing decline in consumer credit default rates,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“Consumer default rates have stabilized at levels similar to those seen before the financial crisis. The national composite is nearing a historic low while the auto loan reached a historic low in April,” Blitzer added.
In addition, all five MSAs experienced default rate decreases for their second consecutive night.
Dallas posted a new historic low default rate of 0.83%, while New York recorded the largest downturn of 1.19% in April, 18 basis points lower than last month’s level.
Meanwhile, New York also reported the largest decrease year-over-year, coming in at a rate of 1.19% in April 2014.
Miami maintained the highest default rate while Dallas has the lowest.
“All five cities – Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, Miami and New York – remain below default rates they posted a year ago,” Blitzer said.
