Agent movement cools as trepidation spreads across the market

A noticeable halt in agent activity underscores market caution

The latest data reflected in the Agent Movement Index (AMI) for July 2024 indicates a notable shift in the real estate agent landscape, highlighting a cooling trend in agent movement and an emerging caution in the market.

Key observations from July 2024 AMI:

Halting of agent growth: The recent trend of increasing active agents, which we’ve observed over several months, appears to have stopped. The number of active agents stabilized, potentially signaling a more challenging environment for new entrants.
Decline in agent movement: After a resurgence in agent movement between brokerages from Fall 2023 through Spring 2024, we are now seeing a decline. This suggests that the period of heightened mobility may be coming to an end as agents take a wait-and-see approach to the new industry structure.
Impact of NAR’s commission rule changes: Agents are experiencing uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) commission rule changes. This uncertainty makes agents more hesitant to make significant moves, contributing to the decline in agent movement.

Rob Keefe commented on these developments, stating, “The data from July clearly show a market in transition. After months of increased activity, agents are beginning to take a more measured approach, likely in response to the uncertainties brought about by recent industry changes. It’s a time for brokerages to pay close attention to these trends and adjust their strategies accordingly.”

This month’s findings depart from the trends we’ve seen in previous AMI releases, where we noted a consistent rise in active agents and agent movement. For instance, our June 2024 release highlighted the ongoing increase of active agents and the stabilization of agent movement at pre-2017 levels. The July AMI, however, records a trailing 12 month score of 98.9, a monthly score of 101.1, and a seasonally adjusted figure of 88.3, reflecting the beginning of a potential shift in market dynamics.