Monday Morning Cup of Coffee

A look at stories across HousingWire’s weekend desk, with more coverage to come on bigger issues: There’s been talk of a new federal program to help boost the number of mortgage refinancings and some analysts weighed in. Barclays Capital analysts expect the Obama administration to focus on initiatives that don’t need congressional approval and anticipate the government will eventually settle on a plan to help more underwater borrowers refinance through the Home Affordable Refinance Program. Whatever the administration chooses would “represent a moderate increase in refinanceability, and would not pose a substantial increase in prepayment risk,” in residential mortgage-backed securitization pools the BarCap analysts said. “Also, given the recent widening, these changes have already been priced into the market.” Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch doubt government attempts to improve the mortgage refinancing process will help lenders build capacity. “The economics of the mortgage lending industry have changed,” the analysts said. “Originators used to have 2-3 points of upside with very little downside. With putback risk taking center stage, they now face 2-3 points of upside and 40-50 points of downside. This change in economics has caused the lending industry to shrink by half.” BofAML said participation in the government’s HARP has been limited to higher-quality borrowers. Whereas, focusing on refinancing high-loan-to-value and low-FICO borrowers “can have a bigger impact on the economy.” And any new federal effort to boost the number of mortgage refinancings must help build out lending capacity, according to BofAML. “Lift the specter of putback risk and the pieces fall into place: banks are freed to compete over riskier borrowers; GSEs get updated information about loans on their books and reduced default risk; mortgage financing finds its way to homeowners who have been on the outside; and Washington’s involvement is minimal,” according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded ratings on 25 subordinate tranches from six deals worth about $70 million issued by Fannie Mae REMIC Trust. These bonds are not guaranteed by the government-sponsored enterprise and the collateral for the bonds includes mostly first-lien, fixed and adjustable rate, mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration or guaranteed by the Veterans Affairs. Most of the tranches were pushed further down the non-investment grade scale. Although some bonds issued through the Fannie Mae REMIC Trust 2001-W3 moved from Aa2 and Baa1 and A2 to Baa2. Analysts said the downgrades reflect Moody’s updated loss projection for the RMBS FHA-VA portfolio. The ratings agency now projects “higher potential pool losses due to self-curtailment of claims by servicers whereby they pass expenses as deemed reasonable to the trusts instead of submitting them to HUD, and continued weaknesses in the macro economy and the housing market.” The South Florida Business Journal is reporting the Bank of America Centre in West Palm Beach, Fla., faces foreclosure. Wells Fargo, acting as trustee for a commercial mortgage-backed securities fund that includes the loan on the building, filed a foreclosure lawsuit because the borrower no longer wants to own the building, according to the newspaper. Regulators didn’t close any banks last week. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. recently reported banks it insures added $64.4 billion in loans and leases during the second quarter, a 0.9% increase from the previous quarter and the first growth in three years. And the number of problem banks monitored by the FDIC dropped in the second quarter for the first time since the third quarter of 2006. The National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales data for July Monday morning. Analysts polled by Econoday expect pending sales to decrease 1% for July with estimates ranging from declines of 2% to an increase of 2.5%. Pending home sales climbed 2.4% in June on the heels of an 8.2% jump the prior month. The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index for June comes Tuesday. Both the 10-city and 20-city indices of the closely watched report rose about 1% in May. Zillow anticipates a 4.3% decline in home prices for June. Write to Jason Philyaw. Follow him on Twitter: @jrphilyaw