In 2023, following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, the spreads between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year yield were at their worst, leading to new cycle highs. This meant mortgage rates were significantly higher than average. However, this year, we’re seeing a different trend with the spreads: they’re improving, and mortgage rates are trending better as a result, even with the 10-year yield still above 4%.
Mortgage spreads
Last year, the 10-year yield hit 5% and mortgage rates got above 8%. With how much better the spreads are this year, we wouldn’t see 8% mortgage rates even if the 10-year yield rose back to 5%.
That begs the next question: what if the spreads improve and the 10-year yield keeps falling? This can mean sub-6% mortgage rates. This is key because if mortgage rates can get toward 6% or under, existing home sales will grow since we are at such extreme lows in demand. The homebuilders have shown us how a sub-6 % mortgage rate can grow sales — it shouldn’t be any different for the existing home sales market.
If we took the worst levels of the spreads from 2023 and incorporated those today, mortgage rates would be 0.48% higher right now. While we are far from being average with the spreads, the fact that we have seen this improvement is a plus this year.
10-year yield and mortgage rates
Last week, inflation data and testimony from Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell were a plus for mortgage rates as the 10-year yield fell to the critical level of 4.20%. This has been a stubborn place to break lower, so the key for this week is to get follow-through bond buying after we close below 4.20%. If this doesn’t happen soon, we will need to wait for more economic data or a Fed talking point to push the 10-year yield lower.
Purchase application data
The last time we saw 12 weeks of positive trending purchase app growth was when mortgage rates reached 6%. Purchase apps have been positive for four out of the last five weeks and mortgage rates aren’t even near 6%. Now, context is critical because we are working from the lowest bar ever, so it doesn’t take much to move the needle higher with purchase apps, as the last five weeks have shown.
However, let’s keep an eye out on this story over the next six months because of what late 2022 and 2023 data has shown us: if the mortgage rates fall and we can get at least two to three months’ worth of positive data, it will show up in the future existing home sales report. Remember, purchase apps look out 30-90 days, so that data will hit the sales report later on.
Since mortgage rates started to fall in November 2023, we’ve seen 16 positive prints, 14 negative prints and two flat prints in the week-to-week data. However, as mortgage rates began to rise earlier this year, we observed a decline in demand. The year-to-date data for 2024 is still unfavorable, with 10 positive prints, 14 negative prints and two flat prints.
Weekly housing inventory data
This week’s data was hit with the July 4th bug. Especially if July 4th is on a Thursday or Friday, people tend to take a more extended vacation. So, I will not make any statements about the decline in inventory week to week, except that it’s been affected by the holiday and we should get back on trend next week.
- Weekly inventory change (July 5-12): Inventory fell from 652,573 to 651,453
- The same week last year (July 7-14): Inventory rose from 466,534 to 471,603
- The all-time inventory bottom was in 2022 at 240,497
- The yearly inventory peak for 2024 was 652,573
- For some context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 1,197,439
New listings data
New listings data saw a much sharper decline than I had anticipated this week, but it was July 4th weekend so that I won’t make anything of it. However, I will keep an eye out here in the future weeks. The seasonal decline period is starting soon, so we should get accustomed to seeing a decline in new listing data as the year heads toward its end.
It is a bit shocking to me that new listings this week are lower than even last year: This is the lowest new listing week ever recorded. Here are the new listings for last week over the last several years:
- 2024: 56,638
- 2023: 57,304
- 2022: 71,790
Price-cut percentage
In an average year, one-third of all homes take a price cut — this is standard housing activity. As rates have stayed elevated, the price-cut percentage is higher than in the last two years, and certain pockets of the U.S. have higher inventory data than the national data.
A few weeks ago, on the HousingWire Daily podcast, I discussed that the price-growth data will cool down in the year’s second half. Here are the price-cut percentages for last week over the previous few years:
- 2024: 38%
- 2023: 33%
- 2022: 33%
Pending sales
Below is the Altos Research weekly pending contract data year-over-year to show real-time demand. With more sellers who are buyers, we have a tad more demand this year. These are live weekly contracts, compared to the purchase application data, which looks out to 30-90 days. And our weekly pending sales data accounts for contracts.
- 2024: 381,524
- 2023: 377,650
- 2022: 419,524
The week ahead: Powell talks again, plus retail sales and housing starts
Powell will speak again on Monday and a few Fed presidents will speak this week as well. I want to see if we get more dovish statements from other Fed presidents this week. Retail sales are on Tuesday and housing starts are on Wednesday. The big focus for housing starts data is if single-family permits keep falling, which isn’t bullish for construction labor going out. Also, we have the all-important jobless claims data on Thursday.
