2025 Housing Market Forecast: The Path to Home Sales Recovery

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Texas housing inventory jumps 40%, but prices stay flat

Gulf Coast market inventories are booming as is price growth in West Texas

They say everything is bigger in Texas — and apparently that includes housing inventory growth.

While available homes for sale are growing all over the country, it’s happening at a dramatic scale in Texas. According to a second-quarter 2024 report from Texas Realtors, the number of active listings from April to June of this year were up 40.8% compared to the same period last year.

Months of supply — which measures how many months the current supply would take to run out given the pace of sales — also increased. It grew from 3.1 months in Q2 2023 to 4.6 months in Q2 2024, good for the highest amount of supply in the state in at least eight years.

Despite the rise in supply, the statewide median home price showed nearly flat growth, rising 0.6% year over year to $345,000. Sales were down 3% compared to Q2 2023, falling to 93,417.

“Interest rates are a big part of the story,” Texas Realtors Chairman Jef Conn said in a statement. “With today’s higher rates, some buyers are sitting on the sidelines and hoping rates or home prices come down.”

This trend varies in the major metro areas of Texas. In Dallas, active listings were up 44.7%, pushing the months of supply to 3.8. Houston inventory was up 42.5% and months of supply grew to 4.2. San Antonio listings jumped 43.4%, bringing the months of supply to 5.2.

Austin has experienced less of a jump in active listings with a 29.5% annualized increase and 4.8 months of supply at the end of Q2 2024. But the housing market in Austin has been cooling since the flurry of activity in 2021 and 2022, whereas the other major metros in Texas have been more stable.

Cities in south Texas and along the Gulf Coast are showing elevated levels of months of supply relative to other parts of Texas, with Beaumont (5.2), Brownsville (7.2), Corpus Christi (7.1) and McAllen (6.8) each outpacing the statewide numbers.

Markets in more remote areas, particularly West Texas, are substantially different than the rest of Texas. Median prices were up in Odessa (11.7%), Abilene (11.2%), San Angelo (8.4%) and Midland (6%). Supply in Odessa grew by a relatively modest 14.8%, bringing months of supply to 2.1.

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