Logan Mohtashami on the 2025 housing market and the Trump effect

This week on the RealTrending podcast, Tracey talks to Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst for HousingWire and regular CNBC contributor. Logan joins us today to discuss his forecast for the housing market in 2025, including rates and the impact of potential tariffs under a Trump presidency.

Here’s a glimpse of what you’ll learn:

• Mortgage rates are expected to range between 5.75% to 7.25%.
• The tariff situation may not lead to a full-blown trade war.
• Trump’s economic policies will focus on lowering rates and the dollar.
• Real estate professionals should prepare for potential market shifts in 2025.
• The housing market is showing signs of recovery with better-pending contracts and inventory data.
• The potential for growth in 2025 is promising, given current trends.

Here’s a small preview of today’s interview. The transcript below has been lightly edited for length and clarity:

Tracey Velt: I want to talk to you about the tariff situation because from what I understand, Trump wants to raise tariffs. And the whole reason for doing is to bring these companies back to the United States. I need more of an explanation and how it may affect mortgage rates.

Logan Mohtashami: I do not believe Trump will go into a big trade war. The reason I say this is that back in 2016, he said the same thing. He didn’t go into what I call a “trade war tap dance.” It’s a calculated trade war. It’s designed to create an atmosphere to try to get companies to come back. He didn’t do this until after his corporate tax cuts were in. Rates were somewhat more stable. And then in 2018 and 19, that’s when he went into this trade war tap dance.

The one thing that didn’t happen for him, which I believe his team understands now, is that back then a business investment, even with a corporate tax cut, just simply collapsed. So I don’t buy into the full on trade work as that isn’t his MO, especially now with job growth slowing down and with rates elevated. He’s probably going to find another time to really go into this, but a full blown trade war can create a little bit more chaos than he probably wants right now.

The RealTrending podcast features the brightest minds in real estate. Every week, brokerage leaders, top agents, team leaders, and industry experts share their success secrets, trends, and lessons learned navigating this ever-changing industry. Hosted by Tracey Velt and produced by Elissa Branch.